(Source: american.com)
It has been a year since the
Fukushima nuclear disaster took place. Now that we can appraise its
consequences in more detail, the situation is alarming.
The earthquake of March 11 2011 led the country to the temporary closure
of its nuclear plants, which pleased the entire Japanese population. As a
matter of fact, despite the radioactive fallout, the Japanese economy remains
the principal victim of the catastrophe. The global economic cost of the
accident continues to increase day after day, seriously affecting the country’s level of debt and
its foreign trade.
The foreign trade accounts of the
world's third largest economic power reported a record negative balance of ¥4.410bn in March 2011, the equivalent of nearly €42bn. Indeed, the balance of
trade has been deeply affected due to the impact of natural disasters on the
Japanese industry and the gloomy economic situation
in the US and Europe. This forced companies to
import more hydrocarbons due to the reduction of nuclear power production, leading the country to a deeper indebtedness.
The weight
of crude oil imports
Japanese exports increased
in March for the first time in six months, largely thanks to the automotive
industry and the demand from the US. However, the high price of crude oil imports put the
balance of trade back into the red. Exports rose 5.9% month
on month in March 2012, while economists on average expected no increase.
In the preceding twelve months, exports declined by 3.7%m, a value of ¥65,281.2bn, approximately €616bn. This is
mainly due to a fall of 14.7% in overseas shipments of semiconductors and other
electronic components, and a decline in deliveries of home entertainment, cars,
plastics, paper and metals (Reuters).
On the other hand, Japanese
imports jumped by 11.6% from April 2011 to March 2012 representing ¥69.692bn (±
€658bn). Part of this was due to a jump in the volume of crude oil purchases, petroleum products and
liquefied natural gas needed to fuel thermal power stations and compensate for
the lack of nuclear power.
The strength
of the Yen does not help
For more than a year and a half,
the Japanese currency has been strengthening,
which mechanically reduces the competitiveness of Japanese products to foreign
markets and discourages production in the archipelago.
Consequences
It seems to be very difficult for
Japan to reconnect with its legendary market power. Even though it can count on
the dynamism of emerging countries to increase demand and maybe renew its
activities with the US, there is still a lack of energy resources that can
seriously influence the development of high
technology, an important sector for Japan. If the country continues to import
as much as it does, the level of unemployment will rise leading to a less
stable economy. This situation would cause many
problems for Japanese citizens, and one of the
most tragic one would be a decline in the competitiveness against Korea, for instance in the high tech sector.
Moreover, the Fukushima accident
has raised the question about denuclearization
in Europe. After the news came out, some nuclear plants over the continent were
supposed to be destructed. We can understand that it was for the security of the people, however, we didn't take into account
all the effects of denuclearization. It will
cost an incredible loss of jobs in certain areas where nuclear
activity is the main source of income. Therefore, there will be a rise in
energy imports which can make a country dependent for a short time until it
develops enough alternative energies to compensate for the nuclear one. This is
quite a dangerous strategy in these times of crisis especially when some
countries in the Middle East are suspected to conduct secretly nuclear tests to
develop atomic weapons via nuclear programs.
In fact, it would be better to
secure nuclear plants while developing alternative energies at the same time in order to avoid deficit in the
balance of trade, a loss in competitiveness and a dependency
on imports.
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